Match 22 IPL 2017 (2017-04-20) @ Indore (HCS)
Mumbai have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams. Last season Mumbai won away in Mohali but lost at their temporary home in Visakhapatnam. At Visakhapatnam Mumbai batted first and their batting collapsed, only scoring 124. In Mohali they scored a better 189 which Punjab failed to chase down.
Punjab started the season well winning both their opening games. These matches were played at one of their home grounds at Indore. On both occasions they bowled first and easily knocked off moderate totals. Their Indian held Pune to 163 and RCB to 148.
Punjab have lost on the road for their next 3 matches. At Kolkata they failed to defend 170. At Delhi they were set 188 to chase but collapsed to 137 for 9 in their 20 overs. At Hyderabad they restricted the home team to 159 but failed to reach the target despite a fantastic 95 from Manan Vohra.
Mumbai lost their first match when they batted first against Pune. They then won their next 4 matches chasing down scores of 178, 158, 142 and 176. 3 of these 4 victories were at home. None of the run chases have been easily with the team being plagued by early wickets with the middle order having to score the bulk of the runs.
All 4 IPL matches at Indore have been won by the chasing team. Both the matches KXIP have won this season have been chasing a target at Indore. All of Mumbai's wins have come from decent bowling containing the opposition to a moderate score and then chasing it down. All the evidence points towards the toss being a big one to win with the team batting first having an advantage.
The tempting bet is to wait until the toss and back the chasing team but my trust in Punjab to chase a total is not strong. Mumbai have a Cricsq rating of 103 which is 27 points clear of Punjab on 76. I think that the odds available on Betfair on Mumbai are the value bet so I have backed to win on Betfair.
Hashim Amla and Manan Vohra have been opening the batting the KXIP this season. Amla has scored 130 runs with a strike rate of 123. He has had a number of starts but is yet to go on and make a big score. He is struggling to maintain momentum with his scoring rate slowing down as the ball softens. Vohra almost single-handedly chased down the Sunrisers 159 on Monday. He scored a brilliant 95 off just 50 balls. Glen Maxwell finally moved himself up the order on Monday. He only scored 10 runs but in long term giving him the most balls possible is essential to the team. He should consider opening with Vohra and replacing Amla with an all-rounder.
David Miller and Eoin Morgan have been disappointing so far. Miller has only scored 83 in 4 innings with a strike rate of 104. Morgan has only played 2 matches scoring 22 and 13. The overseas batsmen must start to score more runs.
Saha scored 270 in 2016 but has only managed 45 runs in 4 innings this season so far. Axar Patel has batted as high as 3 and as low as 7. He has scored 84 runs with a strike rate of 120.
Darren Sammy or Stoinis should replace Amla. I prefer Sammy to bring some much needed energy to side batting at 6 and to bowl a few overs. KXIP missed a trick not making him captain at the start of the season.
The KXIP's squad is packed with overseas batsmen. This means that their bowling attack contains domestic bowlers.
Axar Patel has been the pick of their bowlers. He has taken 6 wickets and gone for 7 an over. KC Cariappa and Swapnil Singh have both been tried as the second spinner. Cariappa has 2 wickets and an economy rate of 8.7. Singh took 1 wicket at an economy rate of 7 in the 1 match he played.
Sandeep Sharma and Mohit Sharma have lead the seam attack in all five matches. Sandeep has 5 wickets and has gone for 8.6 an over. Mohit only has 3 wickets and an economy rate of 9.1
Varun Aaron has also been expensive. He has 5 wickets in 2 matches at a rate of 8.9 an over. Ishant Sharma has played in two matches. He has taken no wickets but has only gone at 6.5 an over.
The attack generally has a poor economy rate and is not taking enough wickets. There are little options in the squad to replace the key bowlers. Matt Henry, Stoinis and Sammy are all expensive in T20 cricket.
The Mumbai batting order has seen contributions from 1 to 7 so far in the competition. They are a settled site with no changes in the 5 matches.
The top 3 of Buttler, Parthiv Patel and Rohit Sharma have all under performed so far. Buttler has 108 runs at a strike rate of 133. Patel has 91 rates at a strike rate of 121. Rohit has only scored 49 runs. 40 of those runs came in 29 balls against the Lions on Sunday. Mumbai will hope this signals his return to form.
Nitish Rana batted at 3 on Sunday and score another 50. He is Mumbai's top run scorer so far this season with 193 at a strike rate of 133. Pollard is second with 164 at a rate of 143. He kept his composure and scored a match winning 70 against RCB.
The late middle order contains the Pandya brothers. They have been sensational down the order producing runs at crucial times to see their team home. Krunal has 88 runs at a strike rate of 144. Hardik has 81 at a rate of 225.
If Buttler, Patel and Rohit can also find top form the Mumbai batting line-up will become even stronger. They have a very settled winning side and they must avoid the temptation to tinker with it.
As with the batting Mumbai have had a very settled bowling attack. The only change has been Harbhajan Singh returning after the loss in the first match and Southee playing when Malinga has been unavailable.
Harbhajan Singh and Krunal Pandya are Mumbai's spin bowlers. Krunal has taken 4 wickets and gone for 6.86 an over. Harbhajan has been more economical going at only 5.94 an over and has taken 3 wickets.
The seamers have all been more expensive. McClenaghan is the top wicket-taken on 7. He has gone for 8.65 an over. Bumrah and Malinga have each taken 4 wickets. Bumrah has an economy rate of 8.8. Malinga has been expensive going at 9.8 an over. Hardik Pandya has also contributed. He has taken 4 wickets with an economy rate of 8.2 runs an over. In the 2 matches Southee has played he took 1 wicket and went for 9.5 an over.
The spinners have bowled well and at times the death bowling has been exceptional. Mitchell Johnson is worth considering as a strike bowler that has a recent economy rate of under 6 an over in the Big Bash.
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