Match 51 IPL 2017 (2017-05-11) @ Mumbai (WS)
Mumbai won 5 of the last 7 matches between these sides. Mumbai won the match earlier this season in Indore. Punjab scored 198 for their 20 overs. Mumbai chased this down with 27 balls to spare thanks to 77 from Jos Buttler and 62 from Nitish Rana.
Since that match Mumbai have beaten Dehli twice, beaten RCB, tied with the Lions and lost to Pune and the Sunrisers. Buttler has been replaced by Simmons opening the batting as Buttler will not be around later in the tournament. Rana's form has dropped off after a great start. In short, Mumbai appear to have peaked early in the season and are now in decline. They have no batsmen in the top 10 run scorers for IPL 2017.
Punjab have had a mixed season. In general, they have beaten the teams lower down the table and lost to the top teams. This changed on Tuesday when they beat KKR. They failed to defend 189 against The Lions on Sunday thanks to poor bowling and terrible catching. On Tuesday, they played 3 front line spinners and fielded superbly. KKR started well but the spinners pulled the Punjab team back into the match. Rahul Tewatia was playing his first match. He took 2 for 18 off his 4 overs of leg spin and changed the course of the match.
Mumbai have won 5 from 6 matches this season at home. Their only failure came chasing 160 against Pune 2 weeks ago. The pitch has favored the chasing team this season. 54% of IPL matches played at the Wankhede Stadium have been won by the chasing team since 2014.
Punjab are rated 17 points below Mumbai in the Cricsq ratings. They have 85 points and Mumbai have 102 points. Mumbai are on the decline and have not being playing good cricket recently. Punjab are improving and have just had a confidence boosting win against KKR.
Punjab need to win whereas Mumbai do not. At the time of writing Punjab are 2.3 on Betfair and Mumbai are 1.74. I have backed Punjab to win at 2.3 as I think those odds represent the value.
Mumbai have opened with Lendl Simmons and Parthiv Patel in their last 2 matches. Buttler has not played. It seems Mumbai want to prepare Simmons for the play-offs knowing Buttler will not be available. They have the luxury of being able to do this because they are top of the points table.
Simmons scored 66 from 43 balls against Delhi but failed against the Sunrisers scoring just 1 run. He now has a strike rate of 140. This compares to Buttler who scored 272 runs from 10 matches with a strike rate of 154. Parthiv Patel has opened in every match. He has 287 runs with a strike rate of 133.
Nitish Rana is Mumbai's top run scorer with 312 at a strike rate of 127. He is 11th on the IPL 2017 runs scorer list. This shows that Mumbai have no one batsmen performing consistently. Rana started the season well but his form has since tailed off.
Rohit Sharma has improved during the season after a poor start. He scored 67 from 45 balls batting at 4 against the Sunrisers. He now has 250 runs with a strike rate of 127.
The Mumbai middle order has consisted of Kieron Pollard and the Pandya brothers. Pollard has 299 runs with a strike rate of 135. Hardik Pandya has 195 runs with a strike rate of 155. He struggled against the Sunrisers on Monday scoring just 15 runs off 24 balls.
Krunal Pandya has not played recently. I assume he must be injured. He has 136 runs from 7 innings with a strike rate of 137. He played some vital innings early in the season and him not playing weakens the batting. Karn Sharma has replaced him. He only has 25 runs from 3 innings with a poor strike rate of 109.
Mitchell McClenaghan is Mumbai's main strike bowler. He has 17 wickets with an economy rate of 8.9 an over. He has been expensive but bowled well against the Sunrisers taking one wicket and only going at 6.5 an over.
Lasith Malinga and Jasprit Bumrah are the other main seamers. Malinga has 9 wickets with an economy rate of 9.2 an over. Bumrah has 14 wickets and has gone at 7.9 an over. Hardik Pandya also bowls some overs of seam. He has 4 wickets at under 8 an over.
In the spin department Harbhajan Singh has been economical going at 5.8 an over. He has 8 wickets and gives Mumbai control in the middle overs. Karn Sharma has now played 4 matches. He has 6 wickets with an economy rate of 7.4. Krunal Pandya has 10 wickets and has gone at 6.7 an over.
Hashim Amla and Manan Vohra opened the batting for Punjab for most of the season. Amla is Punjab's top run scorer with 420 runs with a strike rate of 146. He has now left the IPL for South African duties along with David Miller. Vohra has 229 runs from 9 innings with a strike rate of 144.
Martin Guptill has opened in the last 5 matches. He is an explosive player. He has 96 runs with a strike run of 139. The only time he has got going so far was his 50 off 27 balls against Delhi.
Shaun Marsh bats at 3. He has 229 runs with a strike rate of 139.
With the loss of Morgan, Amla and Miller to international duties Punjab are now a batsman short. Saha batted at 4 against KKR. He scored a solid 38 from 33 balls. He now has 127 runs from 9 innings.
Maxwell holds himself back for the middle order. He has not made a big score this IPL. He reached 44 off 25 balls against KKR before trying to hit one 6 too many. It is the way he plays. He now has 263 runs with an excellent strike rate of 170. Axar Patel also plays in the middle order. He has 186 runs with a strike rate of 144.
Matt Henry played his first match for Punjab in the win against KKR. He was expensive going at 10 an over but got the vital wicket of Manish Pandey before he could get going.
Sandeep Sharma is Punjab's top wicket taker with 16. He has an economy rate of 8.2 an over. Mohit Sharma has 11 wickets and has gone at 8.6 an over. The other main seamers used are Varun Aaron and Natarajan.
Against KKR, Punjab played 3 main-line spinners. Rahul Tewatia was superb on debut. He took 2 for 18 off his 4 overs of leg spin. The wickets were the vital ones of Gambhir and Uthappa. Swapnil Singh was expensive going at 9.5 an over. Axar Patel is the main Punjab spinner. He as 13 wickets for the season with an economy rate of 7.5 an over. Glenn Maxwell did not bowl himself against KKR as the other spinner were doing so well. He has been good this IPL with 6 wickets and an economy rate of 6.8.
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