The Final IPL 2017 (2017-05-21) @ Hyderabad (D)
Pune have won 4 of the 5 matches between these 2 sides. In IPL 2017 Pune have beaten Mumbai in all 3 matches they have played.
Mumbai lost to Pune in their first match of the season. In that match Mumbai scored 184 with contributions all down the order. Pune chased down the total with 1 ball to spare with Rahane and Steve Smith making their best scores of the season.
Mumbai then got on a roll winning their next six matches before they lost to Pune again. This time Pune batted first and scored 160. Mumbai were 3 runs short in their run chase thanks to brilliant bowling from Ben Stokes.
Mumbai lost 2 of their last 3 qualifying matches. When they were already assured of qualification for the play-offs they tinkered with their side. This meant they lacked momentum going into the first qualifying final against Pune. They had a second chance against KKR on Friday which they grasped with both hands with a dominant performance.
Pune started the season poorly. After their initial win against Mumbai they lost 3 straight matches. Since those loses they have won 9 out of 11 matches. They have lost their aggressive leg-spinner Imran Tahir and impressive all-rounder Ben Stokes to international duties. They have adjusted well to losing these key players.
Mumbai and Pune ended up first and second in the league stages of the IPL. This meant they played in the first qualifying final. Pune won that match that sent them straight to the final. Mumbai lost but got another chance by beating KKR on Friday.
In the first qualifying final Pune scored 162 at Mumbai. With Ben Stokes missing from the batting line-up they had to be careful to not lose too many early wickets. Unfortunately, they lost 2 quick wickets. This meant Rahane and Tiwary had to consolidate and score slowly. They both scored 50s before MS Dhoni came in and blasted 5 sixes towards the end of the innings. They then bowled superbly to restrict Mumbai to 142. Washington Sundar was the star taking 3 for 16 off his 4 overs.
The final is being played at Hyderabad. 63% of IPL matches have been won by the team batting second. But this is a final where the pressure of runs on the board can be important. 6 out of the 9 IPL finals to date have been won by the team batting first. The last 2 finals have seen first innings scores of over 200 and 4 of the last 5 have seen scores of over 190.
Pune are rated 106 in the Cricsq ratings. Mumbai are 7 points behind them on 99. The early Betfair prices have Mumbai favorites at 1.75 with Pune at 2.3. I have backed Pune to win. They are the superior rated team and represent value at 2.3. My only reservation is the lack of depth in their batting now that they are without Stokes.
Lendl Simmons and Parthiv Patel open the batting for Mumbai. Patel has 391 runs with a strike rate 136. Simmons came in 6 matches ago to replace Jos Buttler. He has 134 runs with a strike rate of 129. He scored 2 fifties in his first 3 matches but has struggled in his last 3 with scores of 0, 5 and 3.
Ambati Rayudu bats at 3 for the out of form Nitish Rana. Rayudu has 79 runs from 4 innings with a strike rate of 125. He scored 63 in his comeback match against KKR but has failed in his last 2 innings scoring just 0 and 6.
Rohit Sharma has 309 runs with a strike rate of 123. He helped steady the ship against KKR on Friday after 3 early wickets scoring 26 from 24 balls. He started the season poorly but has played better in the second half.
The Mumbai middle order consists of Pollard and the Pandya brothers. Pollard has 378 runs with a strike rate of 138. Krunal Pandya saw his side home on Friday with 45 off 30 balls. He now has 196 runs from 10 innings with a strike rate of 139. Hardik Pandya has 240 runs from 15 innings with a strike rate of 159.
Mitchell McClenaghan is Mumbai's top wicket taker with 19 runs. He has been expensive going at 9.4 an over. He was injured and missed the win against KKR on Friday. He was replaced by Mitchell Johnson. Johnson has only played 4 matches. He has 4 wickets with a good economy rate of 7.2.
Lasith Malinga has been the choice above Johnson when all 3 overseas seamers have been available. Malinga has 11 wickets from 11 matches with an economy rate of 8.9 an over. Johnson may be preferred in the final if McClenaghan is back.
Jasprit Bumrah has taken 18 wickets with an economy rate of 7.5 runs an over. He has been exceptional in the death overs this season. Hardik Pandya has also been used to bowl some overs of seam. He has 6 wickets with an economy rate of 8.2.
Karn Sharma has kept Harbhajan Singh out of the side recently. His wrist spin has taken 13 wickets in just 8 matches. He bowled superbly on Friday taking 4 for 16 off his 4 overs. His economy rate is 7.4 compared to Harbhajanx91s 6.5 but his wicket taking ability should keep him in the side.
Krunal Pandya is the second spinner. He has 10 wickets from 10 matches. He has a decent economy rate of 6.7 runs an over.
Rahul Tripathi and Ajinkya Rahane open the batting for Pune. Tripathi has scored 388 runs this season with a strike rate of 150. Rahane has a more sedate strike rate of 117 and has 338 runs. He scored 60 against Mumbai in the first match of the season and came back to form in the last match scoring 56 off 43 balls.
Steve Smith bats at 3. He is Pune's top run scorer with 421 runs. He has a strike rate of 125. He failed in the qualifier against Mumbai making just 1 run. He is a big match player and Pune will be expecting a lot more from him in the final.Manoj Tiwary scored a sensible 58 off 48 balls in the qualifier. He bats at 4. He has 317 runs with a strike rate of 139.
This season MS Dhoni, Ben Stokes and Dan Christian have batted in the middle order. With Stokes now missing and been replace by a bowler Pune are one batsman light. Dhoni has 280 runs for the season with a strike rate of 118. He is a big match player. He scored 40 off 26 balls in the qualifier. His 5 sixes got them to a defendable total of 162.
Christian has only batted 8 times. He has a high strike rate of 160 but has only scored 75 runs. If Pune lose early wickets again more will be required of him.
Pune have lost 2 of their top wicket takers for international duties. Imran Tahir got 18 wickets and Ben Stokes took 12. They do have depth in their squad and have brought in Lockie Ferguson and Adam Zampa to replace them.
Jaydev Unadkat is Pune's top wicket taker with 22 from just 11 matches. He has an economy rate of 7.4. Shardul Thakur also bowls pace. He has 11 wickets with an economy rate of 8.5.
Lockie Ferguson has come in for Stokes. He has 3 wickets from 3 matches with a decent economy rate of 6.5. Dan Christian plays as the all-rounder and fourth seamer. He has been economical going at 7.3 runs an over. He has also taken 9 wickets.
Washington Sundar was brilliant against Mumbai on Tuesday. He bowled in the powerplay and took 3 for 16 off his 4 overs. He now has 8 wickets from 9 matches with an economy rate of 6.6. Adam Zampa is now the second spinner. He has 5 wickets from 5 matches with an economy rate of 8.4. He only bowled 1 over on Tuesday.
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